Inventory in has spiked to a four-year high and because of this we could potentially see a shift in the marketplace as a whole, with a lot more options for buyers and a potential wake-up call for some sellers. The April 2024 Vancouver Real Estate stats are out, and we are going to dive into them right now.
Let’s start by discussing the sales volumes, which essentially indicate the health of the marketplace. Well, last month in April, we saw 2830 homes sell, which compared to last year is up but only about 3% higher than April 2023 and definitely higher than last month, with 17% more home sales than we saw in March. So that upper trend is typical in this type of season, and we are seeing it again this year right now. Stepping back for a moment, let’s look at the 10-year sales volumes. Well, they are still low at about 12% under the long-term average, and while this is the fourth straight month in a row of increases, it’s grinding upwards and it still feels really quite sluggish. And for an even bigger reference, check this out: There were more sales for the month of April going back to the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. So when the world was financially falling apart and everyone thought they were losing their jobs for good, there were still more homes sold than there were last month, so definitely slow overall.
The new listings, this is where things get very interesting, and there’s nothing nominal about these numbers. So, there were 7092 new listings in April, that’s 65% more than April2023 and 40% more than last month. What’s also very interesting is that this was 26% above the 10-year seasonal average. Remember that last month was 10% below the 10-year average: over the past month we’ve seen this huge shift take place. We haven’t seen anything above the long-term average in a very long time. This is a rapid change in the marketplace. This indicates that last month reached a three-year high in monthly new listings dating back to May 2021, which was an insane year in real estate. This sudden influx of listings can be attributed to various factors, including delayed expectations of interest rate cuts and economic uncertainties affecting both buyers and sellers.
As a buyer, if you’ve been eyeing homes in the Greater Vancouver area or Fraser Valley, you might be frustrated with the limited options in recent years, but now there are more homes available than in the past four years. It could be a good time to take another look. For sellers, if this trend continues, there’s a possibility of prices dropping a bit in the short term, although it’s too early to say for sure. Nevertheless, if inventory keeps increasing throughout May and June, there could be opportunities for buyers to snag some deals in the summer.
The sales-to-active ratio is currently at 24%, up one percent from the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. We’re now in the third month of a seller’s market. However, when we break it down by property type, detached homes are at 18%, townhomes at 31%, and apartments at 26%, showing a possible plateau in the market.
Regarding prices, the Home Price Index (HPI), which is a lagging indicator based on averages and medians, saw a slight increase last month, up by about 0.8%. Despite this, prices are still nearly 3% higher year over year and about 4% higher since January. While detached and townhome prices increased, condo prices decreased, although this decline is from last month’s all-time high.
CONDOS/TOWNHOUSES:
Condos and townhouses had a strong start to the month, with inventory increasing across most areas compared to March, except for a slight decrease in North Delta. Maple Ridge experienced an uptick in the number of sales; however, the average sale price in Maple Ridge decreased throughout April. Presently, Maple Ridge remains in a seller’s market, with Albion, Silver Valley, and Cottonwood emerging as the most active zones. Among property types, 3-bedroom townhomes are particularly sought after. Optimal buying opportunities lie within the $600,000-$700,000 range, especially in Thornhill and one or two-bedroom properties. The average days on the market saw a slight increase, rising to 12 days in April.
DETACHED HOUSES:
Now, turning to the detached housing market. Similar to the condo and townhouse market, inventory has risen in every city across the Metro Vancouver, Greater Vancouver, and Fraser Valley markets. In Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge, there has been a decrease in the number of sales over the past month. Additionally, the average sale price and number of sales in April dipped by 4% compared to March. Maple Ridge remains in a Sellers market, with Albion and East Central areas being the most active. Optimal buying opportunities lie in the $1M-$1.25M range, particularly in Cottonwood and Websters Corners, for one or two-bedroom homes as well as 7+ bedroom residences. The average days on the market have decreased by one day, now standing at 9 days.
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If you have been thinking about buying or selling recently, feel free to reach out. We can create a customized plan to help you achieve your goals in 2024. Curious about your market value? Send me a quick note, and I can run some numbers based on the current market and pricing forecasts. Don’t hesitate to contact me for a detailed property analysis or an in-depth discussion about a specific area. I am always happy to help.